Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.029820 0.033943 0.038452 0.043753 0.049821 0.056554 0.064601
2025-01-26 0.023981 0.029731 0.036596 0.045414 0.056469 0.069906 0.087532
2025-02-02 0.020883 0.027423 0.035706 0.047007 0.062083 0.081591 0.108886
2025-02-09 0.018710 0.025749 0.035107 0.048521 0.067360 0.093033 0.130938
2025-02-16 0.016469 0.023589 0.033455 0.048208 0.069864 0.100725 0.148465
2025-02-23 0.014854 0.022048 0.032392 0.048460 0.073002 0.109420 0.168189
2025-03-02 0.013290 0.020370 0.030893 0.047811 0.074600 0.115838 0.185002
2025-03-09 0.012360 0.019524 0.030509 0.048750 0.078635 0.126267 0.209134
2025-03-16 0.011245 0.018258 0.029322 0.048249 0.080243 0.132897 0.227658
2025-03-23 0.010692 0.017828 0.029402 0.049780 0.085294 0.145596 0.257779
2025-03-30 0.009617 0.016422 0.027738 0.048185 0.084811 0.148783 0.271426
2025-04-06 0.008817 0.015403 0.026620 0.047400 0.085622 0.154230 0.289645
2025-04-13 0.007909 0.014130 0.024974 0.045562 0.084428 0.156098 0.301682
2025-04-20 0.007634 0.013962 0.025267 0.047290 0.090022 0.171093 0.340866
2025-04-27 0.007371 0.013786 0.025520 0.048952 0.095635 0.186662 0.382984
2025-05-04 0.007115 0.013599 0.025727 0.050531 0.101227 0.202736 0.428013
2025-05-11 0.006646 0.012956 0.025008 0.050205 0.102932 0.211136 0.457727
2025-05-18 0.006287 0.012498 0.024604 0.050467 0.105861 0.222323 0.494791
2025-05-25 0.005859 0.011860 0.023786 0.049790 0.106720 0.229191 0.522936
2025-06-01 0.005636 0.011624 0.023757 0.050770 0.111251 0.244453 0.572201
2025-06-08 0.005285 0.011088 0.023064 0.050247 0.112392 0.252285 0.604805
2025-06-15 0.005154 0.011010 0.023324 0.051845 0.118486 0.271979 0.668575
2025-06-22 0.004750 0.010306 0.022183 0.050181 0.116856 0.273531 0.687323